Predictions For 2009!
One of the top futurists, Dr Dixon was asked to take a look at the year ahead, and answer a few questions on what should be in store for us! 1. UK economy?
"Well, these are exceptionally hard times. We are about half way through the current crisis - this has been going on already over 18 months. We can expect a tough 2009 and things should start picking up in 2010. Companies that make redundancies early and have conserved cash should do well in the upturn: lean and fit and with finances available to buy up other companies or assets at rock bottom prices. There has been a lot of fuss about the fall in the pound but this is really good news for companies that sell goods or services outside the UK, and will also mean that people will spend more at home - whether on holidays or other things." 2. Housing Market! should we sell up or stay put? Is renting a good option right now? Will housing become realistically affordable again?
"Each person's circumstances are totally unique but here are some general thoughts. The market is most likely to continue to fall sharply, but will eventually bottom out. The more it falls, and the lower mortgage interest rates go, the more likely it will be that we see a rebound and a strong recovery, as many people decide to come back into the market or to enter for the first time. Much has been written about mortgage markets changing forever, but that is unlikely. The mortgage market will eventually settle down, and will become attractive and competitive again. Once lenders become convinced that we are in the early stages of a Strong property price recovery, we will see loan to value ratios will become more relaxed, and we will see a return of 90% mortgages. Homeowner loans are the highest and most important financial transaction most people do in their lifetimes apart from pensions, so will become once again a very important part of retail financial services.
"The cost of selling and buying again is high with legal fees, stamp duty and the rest. Rents have not fallen as fast as house prices in many areas so renting is more expensive than you may think. Housing is much more affordable than for years - there has been salary inflation of 3.5% or more in the last 2 -3 years, while property prices have also fallen up to 15%. Put them both together and you have around 25% fall in costs - and this is before the mortgage rates started falling, by 30% in some cases. If you look at the whole picture it seems likely that in the next 6 months time we will see some great bargains, with an actual cost of ownership each month of less than half what it was just 18 months ago. But first time buyers will still need a larger deposit than in the past. Remember that: most people own to live in a home and not for a 2-10 year investment. It is vital to take a long term view in all property decisions." 3. UK Job Market.. what industries are most likely to make drastic job cuts? What are employment chances like now if you lose your job?
"Retail jobs will be hit hard in January to June as reality starts to hit home. McDonalds, Lidl and some others trading at the bottom of their markets will do very well. There are many sectors is surprisingly strong with 850,000 vacancies that were officially known about in December 2008. In past downturns it has been unusual for well motivated and talented people to remain out of work for more than a year." 4. Credit/borrowing market! will we stop being reliant on cheap credit? Will we now think about saving more?
"These are just cycles. We are just about to enter a cheap credit boom, fuelled by the lowest borrowing costs in history. The result in the medium term is likely to be another overshoot, high inflation, high interest rates, eventually leading to another crash which could happen by 2015. As we have seen - swings can happen very fast from one end to the other."
To manage your finances over the coming months, regardless of age, those Britons concerned about their capacity to manage their money may want to apply for a cheap personal loan. By taking out such a loan, borrowers may find that they can merge various financial commitments into a single low-cost monthly repayment.
5. The world economy! what affect will the world economy has on us all? What about £ sterling and our travel/work abroad?
"This will continue to lurch from event to event. All eyes will be watching the price of the dollar. Despite this huge US crisis the dollar has increased or retained value against many currencies, as billions of dollars of US investments in many other nations are brought back to service debts and other priority commitments. Eventually the huge return flows will slow down. When this happens the big question is who will want to buy dollars? Countries like China have bought over a trillion of US dollars and are holding them for now. But what if they start to sell? They can't sell too many as this will force a dollar crash and what is left of their assets will be worth much less. Although they could sell enough to force a gradual dollar decline"
Steve Smith writes for All About Loans. Visist us today to apply for cheap loans online, personal finance, and UK tenant loans.
Published January 22nd, 2009
Filed in Finance